The second project has been a bit of a failure. I told myself I was going to stay active and eat healthier during this little break. However, there has been Christmas, World Jr. Hockey, New Year's, Ukrainian Christmas, Lunar New Year's, Super Bowl, it seems like every weekend has had some occasion or another to meet with somebody or other and eat and drink too much. This weekend it's Oscars. I'm sure I could go somewhere and eat and drink and watch the Oscars too.
And speaking of the Oscars, it was my third project. I have had the leisure and wherewithal to see as many of the Oscar nominated movies as I could and have done so. Most of the movies nominated for best picture, I've watched twice. In fact, there is only one movie with any major nomination that I have yet to watch. Gotta watch "Harriet" today.
Cynthia Erivo, perhaps the most interesting person to watch at the Oscars this year because she could win for both her acting AND her singing, and Oscar politics being what they are these days, I'm sorry to be honest like this but, in a movie about Harriet Tubman, the underground railroad, slavery etc., she could win even if she doesn't deserve it. I'm afraid the local movie, "Parasite" is in that same category. But we'll get to that. But aside from Cynthia and Harriet, I've seen and even seen again, every performance and movie that will play a part in the Oscars tomorrow. So on this Oscar's Eve, I'll give you my predictions. I don't think I need to warn you that there will be plenty of spoilers, do I?
BEST PICTURE
My vote: Ford vs. Ferrari or Jojo Rabbit. It's a tie. The only movie that really brought a tear to my eye this year, although Harriet might, was Ford vs. Ferrari. I hated cheering for an evil corporation, I knew the hokey, Hollywoodian hogwash I was getting myself into, but they got me. TWICE! Second time was even better! So it's my pick. My second pick is Jojo Rabbit just because it was such a quirky, unusually brilliant movie that I am pulling for it. I believe Waititi should have been nominated for Best Director and for crying out loud, he also played a major part in the movie: the part of HITLER! Imaginary Hitler. I think he should be up for Best Actor for that too! So Ford vs. Ferrari AND Jojo Rabbit tied for Best Picture.
Probable: 1917 got the nod at the BAFTA's. Is anyone surprised? A movie about British soldiers' in WWI. It was great, but I think Joker will have a huge Oscars this year and will win the Best Picture award. Among others. It has already had an effect on American culture. The stairs are now a tourist hot spot; the Joker dance is iconic - I used it in this very blog to describe Trump's reaction to being acquitted as "Joker-dancing down the steps of the Capitol Building singing, 'I'm Tremendous! Totally Exonerated! Everybody's stupid but me!'"; Joker's main character has apparently become a sort of patron saint to incels; and people are worried that the movie might be powerful enough to inspire violence in the country. That link is a very well written description of the "uncomfortable viewing" the film offered. Joker - Best Picture.
BEST ACTOR
My vote:
I made this mistake last time I did this when I thought for SURE Christian Bale would win Best Actor for acting AND looking so much like Dink Cheney. Just look at that resemblance! But it wasn't just that. The Two Popes was nothing but two guys talking. That was it! And I was rivetted all the way through! That deserves an Oscar in my book. Jonathan Pryce - Best Actor.
Probable: Joaquin Phoenix will likely get this. He WAS spectacular. This was as perfect a role for him as Pope Francis was for Pryce. But not because he looks like a Joker, because he is half a Joker himself! He's a volatile person and this role might be actually dangerous for him because of the depths he tends to sink into his roles. He won at the BAFTAs and made a political speech. He has always been, or acted, uncomfortable with winning awards. I'm not a fan to be honest. He's had some good performances, but he's had some bad ones. The good ones always seem to be when he plays unstable characters. Not a big stretch. I'd give him an Oscar nod if he could act like a regular dude. Maybe I just hold a grudge against him for his performance in Inherent Vice. He's no Dude, lemme tell you! Joaquin Phoenix - Best Actor.
BEST ACTRESS
My vote: This is probably the toughest choice for me. Of course it's impossible since I haven't seen all the performances yet. But of the 4 out of 5 I've seen, it's STILL hard to pick a winner! I didn't like Little Women so she's out. That leaves us with 3. Hated Judy. REALLY! I dunno, maybe I'm just tired of the feel-sorry-for-the-privileged type of movies in which people who are living our dream and theirs, are portrayed as depressed, alcohol-swilling, drug abusing sad sacks. Don't you WISH you had "problems" like those? Renee was fine I suppose but not my kind of movie. Charlize Theron in Bombshell was fantastic! What a chameleon! But I can't let myself be swayed by how someone looked again. But, come on Charlize, give us a spin. Just a little spin. (bad joke from the movie) I'm going for ScaJo on this one. I went into Marriage Story thinking I was going to hate it like I knew I'd hate Little Women, so it had to work harder to win me over. And it did! For many years my favourite movie was When Harry Met Sally. This could be considered, in my view, the When Harry Met Sally of the younger generation. It reminded me in places of every married couple I know! I'm not going to give Scarlett Johansson the Best Supporting Actress for her role in Jojo because it was a simple role. Be as syrupy sweet as you can. One of those characters who is so GOOD, you KNOW she/he has to die. That was her in Jojo Rabbit. Nicole, the Sally character in Marriage Story, is absolutely NOT one-dimensional! It WAS hard for me to get past her good looks. Like Brad Pitt (who was great as the stunt double in Once Upon a Time In Hollywood and won the BAFTA for it (good for him!)) she is too pretty to be taken seriously, but too good an actor not to be. This was the best I've seen her. So pending Harriet, Scarlett Johansson for Best Actress.
Probable: Little Women is one of those movies that the academy chooses to make them appear to have more refined cinematic wisdom than the average movie viewer. I hated the book when I was young and was forced to read it. I guess I still haven't grown up because I didn't like the movie either. But my guess is that Saoirse Ronan will get the academy's vote on this one. Again, pending Cynthia Erivo.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My vote: Okay, no, THIS is the hardest choice for me! While I LIKED The Irishman, both Pacino and Pesci have been in gangster movies where they've been better and haven't won Oscars. I might take heat for this but Pacino was miscast. Jimmy Hoffa was not tall but a big, burly, tough looking guy. AGAIN I may be thinking too much about appearance but he was no Hoffa. Pesci doesn't look anything like Russel Bufalino either. And let's face it, the Irishman Frank Sheeran, was bigger and Irisher than De Niro. That trio was chosen to get Oscar buzz. Well they got it. They shouldn't get the Oscar. Of the remaining trio, Pitt, Hopkins and Hanks, it's a photo finish. There were times when Tom Hanks did a pretty passable Fred Rogers, but I have to remove him from the running. His accent was inconsistent and he didn't look a lot like Mr. Rogers. But it WAS a really great and unexpected movie! So it's down to Brad Pitt and Anthony Hopkins. While I would like to give the Oscar to Brad Pitt for kicking a cocky Bruce Lee's ass and getting Once Upon a Time banned in China, I have to go with Anthony Hopkins. Again, this movie is just two guys talking. In several languages! They didn't need flame throwers or killer dogs or serial killer cults. So although Hopkins didn't look so much like Pope Benedict, he was awesome! Best Supporting Actor - Anthony Hopkins.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My vote: This one wasn't too hard for me but when it got down to the final two, I wanted to call a tie like I did with the Best Pic. But there are 9 nominees for Best Pic, only 5 for this. I will make a choice if I have to flip a coin. As I said, ScaJo is out. I hate Little Women so Pugh is out. Kathy Bates played the same role as ScaJo, the perfect mother, but she was harder to eliminate because it was SO different from her tough women portrayals in Misery and Dolores Claiborne! Incidentally, Richard Jewell, the movie Kathy Bates was nominated for, has another Oscar worthy Best Actor performance in my opinion by Paul Walter Hauser. But we're getting off track. The final two are a toss up. Laura Dern, who I'm gonna tell you right now I have never liked, and Margot Robbie, who I'm gonna tell you right now I think is a goddess! You might think I'm going on looks again, and maybe I am, but I am going with Margot Robbie who also acted in a movie with an Oscar snub. How good was John Lithgow as slimy Fox News chief Roger Ailes in that? More uncomfortable viewing there! So Best Supporting Actress - Margot Robbie.
Probable: I think Margot will suffer the good-looking curse and Laura Dern will win this one. She DID get the BAFTA and I have to say her performance was irritatingly solid. I hated her as much as I think I was supposed to. Her AND Ray Liota. Nobody wins but the lawyers! Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern.
BEST DIRECTOR
My vote: Oddly, this was easy for me even though I don't care much about this category and I will tell you right now, my pick is a director who has made some movies I didn't care for. Bong Joon Ho is a political pick. Parasite was really two movies. The beginning in which the poor family cons their way into the rich family's service, could have made for an Oscar worthy plot line if not abandoned. But the second half of the movie was terribly contrived and just plain silly. It's a lock for best foreign film but it shouldn't win a major Oscar. Not even my favourite Korean movie. Scorsese did what he does, but the cast in The Irishman was as contrived as the second half of Parasite. Sorry Marty. Todd Phillips didn't do anything really extraordinary in Joker that I saw. The best two directorial performances were by Sam Mendes and Quinton Tarantino for 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in my opinion. 1917 was crazy! I almost felt like I was in the first world war! Just walking along and you see some guys who might be friends or might kill you. A plane crashes, you find a cow and milk it into your canteen then find a hiding Jewess who needs milk for her baby. Far-fetched in any normal setting, but war is not a normal setting. This and Jojo Rabbit made me alter my mindset and suspend my disbelief because of the pure counterintuitive nature of war. But I have to applaud the love letter to Hollywood of yesteryear that Quinton Tarantino wrote in his Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Now maybe I'm biased because I'm similar in age to Tarantino and have a soft spot for TV commercials, old cars, movies, clothing, toys, houses, streets, hairstyles, glasses, chairs, coffee cups, this list could go on and on and I could pause this movie randomly and count the relics from the 70's that bring back memories. That alone made me love this movie. But I hear it's even better if you lived in the specific area back then. Theater names, restaurants, so much stuff is lovingly but not too obviously snuck into this movie ON TOP OF the mesmerizing story of the Manson murders a la Mad Magazine's Scenes We'd Like To See. DiCaprio was great as a washed up tough guy and Brad Pitt was even better as his stand-in and ACTUAL tough guy that DiCaprio's character wanted to be. I loved this movie and almost wished I'd lived in California for a while in the 70's because I just KNOW I missed some nostalgia! Quinton Tarantino - Best Director.
Probable: Since the Oscars is a festival all about movies and Hollywood is where so many movies are made, I gotta think the academy is filled with people who will absolutely love a fond retrospective and a really great movie set in 1970's Hollywood even more than I do. So I think this is the one major Oscars category on which they will vote the same. I think/hope they pick Tarantino here.
I reserve the right to alter my predictions after the viewing of Harriet after I finish this blogpost.
*** Well, I have to say, Harriet is a beauty! As expected, it was a tear-jerker. And Cynthia Erivo earned her Oscar nomination! The whole time I had no idea she was British! But I have to say the best part of the movie was the end. The end where they put on the screen a little of the accomplishments of Harriet Tubman. Then the credits. The credits were AWESOME! Because this song was playing:
This year's Oscars will be fun to watch!
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