Will Taiwan Be The Next Afghanistan?

 Big news recently geopolitically speaking: Afghanistan. The Taliban wasted no time in sacking Afghanistan, taking over government, inheriting untold American dollars worth of American made and supplied armaments, and no doubt reversing many a social development that had taken place over the last 20 years, most particularly for Afghani women. Below is an adjustment of the latest slogan dreamed up at the June '21 G7 meeting of "B3W" which stands for "Build Back a Better World." Although it is much worse, "Build Back Burqa" is a lot less clunky. Keep the B3W in mind as you read... This is foreshadowing. Does it still qualify as foreshadowing if I tell you it's foreshadowing?

The Taliban didn't even wait until after the American military pulled out. Truth is, they were moving in while the pull-out was taking place. And despite constant warnings that the pull-out would stop if the Taliban (including other groups like al-Qaeda) committed any violence, the violence increased all the way through America's exit. Exit plans were adjusted, scrapped, altered, rescinded, reviewed, repurposed and withdrawn... it was not pretty. Here's a timeline of the events.

No doubt you've seen photos and/or movie clips of people chaotically clambering to board planes to get out of the country as soon as possible. Some even clutching wings and wheels of the planes believing they'd be able to hold on. Some falling to their deaths as they found out they could not. What caused all the panic? The Taliban promised to be nice after all. Well it turns out, nobody believed them. This is very reminiscent of the Chinese promising Hong Kongers that nobody would be extradited to China and tried for being unChinese. Nobody believed them either. And shouldn't have. Ask the millions of people who protested why they didn't trust the Chinese Communist Party and you'll get similar answers as to why Afghanis don't trust the Taliban. We may come back to this too. (more foreshadowing) <--- best read in a Homer Simpson whisper.

It all makes one wonder, doesn't it? What did the US get for their 20 years in Afghanistan? Here is an insightful list of ways this war has cost, and will continue to cost the US and Afghanistan. It begs the question:

Doesn't it? Did Uncle Sam win? It sure looks like the obvious answer is absolutely fucking not! But as you will find with age and wisdom, every question is best answered, "It depends." This question depends on who you think is represented by Uncle Sam Van Winkle. If, like most healthy-in-the-head people, you believe he represents the people of America, then the answer is no. But if you ask the brain damaged members of the ruling class, or the investors in the military industrial complex, Afghanistan was an outright victory! Here are the cold (chilling) calculations.

Now, given that pulling out of Afghanistan means putting a cash cow out to pasture, I'm thinking...

What the hell, bruh indeed! Big Money just doesn't abandon big money. And if you've read the title of this post, you might guess where I'm headed with this.

Here is an interesting article you should read. And if you are wondering why those ships might be going to the South China Sea, you should read this article. And if you are wondering why China believes, mistakenly, that Taiwan is part of China, you should read this article. And if you are wondering what China sees in Taiwan, it can be summed up in four letters: TSMC. Not only is Taiwan the world leader and focal point for the most important industry in the world now and in the foreseeable future, the whole world is becoming more and more dependent upon them. China would very much like to welcome them back into the embrace of the loving motherland, of course. But the greater concern, geopolitically speaking, is if China fails at, or doesn't even try diplomacy and just tries to Crimea Taiwan. The destruction of TSMC infrastructure being a casualty of war, (forget about the people because war is all about money) is a massive concern for the large, rich, powerful countries of the world (remember the B3W foreshadowing?). Here's an article about that.

Protecting Taiwan is crucial in the G7 plan to build back a better world and you can be certain that aside from posing for lots and lots of nice photos, the leaders and reps from the G7 were talking about Taiwan at least a little bit at their latest summit in Cornwall, England. Maybe the idea of re-routing all those ships to the South China Sea was discussed at the time. Maybe, despite the Chinese Communist Party's frequent promises to allow Taiwan to retain autonomy as an official Chinese territory is about as believable as the Taliban allowing Afghanistan full autonomy or the Chinese allowing Hong Kong full autonomy. Maybe this was discussed too. (told you I'd get back to this)

Crimea was only 7 years ago. The military coup of Myanmar was back in Feb. Hong Kong is sort of on a break because of Covid, but their autonomy is hanging by a thread despite the millions who protested CCP feces they didn't want China to fling at them. Now Afghanistan. It seems Imperialism is alive and well in the world. Spurred on by the seemingly effortless sacking of Afghanistan by the Taliban, it's not hard to imagine China champing at the bit to make its long threatened move on Taiwan. 

The question is, will this be a bad thing for the powers that be in the geopolitical soup? In other words, are those ships from the UK going to the South China Sea as a deterrent or a catalyst? 

The quote in the 2005 documentary, "Why We Fight" by American political scientist Chalmers Johnson comes to mind: "I guarantee you, when war becomes that profitable, we're going to see more of it." He was talking about profits of 25%. 

The question is, could that type of profit be sustained in a war over Taiwan fought between China and the US/Japan/UK and maybe some other countries on both sides wanting to share in the profits? 

Again, the answer is, "It depends." Do the people in charge of our world see people like this:

or do they see them like this:

I think we all know the answer to that. So while the occupation of the South China Sea by ships from all over the world may seem like a heroic move to protect Taiwan, and as scary as that is, it just might be a decidedly non-heroic provocation, and that, my readers, is a helluva lot scarier!

You can read in the articles I've posted here that the consensus is that nothing's going to happen. Don't worry, China won't attack. Everything's AOK. But that was the consensus in Crimea before little, green men started appearing. The best time to strike is when that is the consensus.

I hope, maybe more than ever before, that my fears expressed in this post are unfounded! We shall see...

Good Lord! No sooner had I finished this post than I read this. Again I ask, "What the hell, bruh?"