Thursday, April 12, 2012

Dave's Playoff Predictions WEST

The West

If not for the distinct possibility that all of these games will be within one or two goals and there will be a LOT of overtime, these series would all be boring as FUCK! I think it's going to be four good offensive teams wasting their talents playing defence, the other teams' game. I'd LOVE to see the Canucks, Sharks, Wings and Hawks get rid of the boring defensive teams and get on with some exciting hockey but I don't think that's too likely. I'm cheering for them all and actually think they all SHOULD win but you never see defensive teams getting lulled into playing offense at this time of year. It's always the other way around. Like I said, boring.

Van/L.A.

I expect at some point, (though not in game one, (which they lost)), Canucks coach Filet Mignon will duct tape Sammi Pahlsson to the back of Anze Kopitar, the Kings only offensive superstar. He was tied for 15th in scoring this year, two points out of the top ten and he was being used in a defensive role. I didn't even NOTICE Pahlsson in game one and I think he could be the deciding factor in this series. Him or Daniel. Kesler has been used before as a shadow and he's VERY effective but I think the Canucks need him, a 41 goal scorer last year, in an offensive role against this defensive team. Scuderi and Mitchell are rock solid and Quick will stop a lot of Canuck rubber so we have to send a lot MORE rubber his way.

I think if Carter and Richards can show the chemistry they had in Philly the Kings will win a game or two in this one. But L.A. almost broke a league record for low scoring games, (for AND against), this year. It's shameful to give up 4 goals to this team! The Canucks played chicken hockey down the stretch worrying more about giving up scoring chances than getting them and they beat a bunch of non-playoff teams - by one goal - in OVERTIME! Vigneault called it "careful" hockey and "success." The only playoff team they beat that way was L.A. so I guess he figured it will be exactly the same story in the playoffs. It started out the same with the early first period goal but then a funny thing happened when they started playing for yet another boring 1-0 "careful success" - they spent half the game in the penalty box! That's the thing about the "careful" game: you do a lot of things that cause penalties like clutching, grabbing, slashing, tripping, boarding, roughing etc., whereas the offensive game Vigneault has abandoned causes the OTHER team to do these same things. THAT'S why the Vancouver power play is not #1 any more where it belongs. Not drawing enough penalties so not getting enough practice. Hopefully Friday with Daniel back in the line-up the coach will let the Canucks play. They were VERY lucky to get 2 goals in that first game!

If the Canucks use the speed and skill of players like Higgings, Hansen, Daniel, Henrik, Kesler, even cement hands Raymond we'll see some nice, skillful goals on the rush and some pretty passing plays. If the coach keeps playing this "careful" hockey the goals will be the ugly ones, lucky bounces, and power plays. I don't think it's smart to leave the game in the hands of the referees and Lady Luck. Overwhelm with offense. We have 4 lines that can do it. Otherwise we're likely to see a repeat of game one and I'd rather not, thank you.

St. Louis/San Jose

The Sharks will have a similar struggle to the Canucks. Blues D and Scroogey goaltending is even MORE solid than the Kings'. If you score a goal on them they say, "ME NO LIKE! ME HURT!" Not just Coliacovo, Jackman, Pietrangelo either. Their big forwards will too. They won't score on you but they WILL SMASH! To be fair, Backes, McDonald, Oshie, Arnott, Perron should be able to score one or MAYBE two goals a game. And if they can lure the Sharks into a rough and tumble series, that might be enough to win.

The Sharks have come to be known as playoff chokers. I'd like to contest the characterization of losing a close, hard-fought series last year to the best team in the league as "choking." But if they want to break that stereotype, do I really have to say it for the bazillionth time??? --- play some friggin' hockey! OFFENSE! Thornton, Marleau, Couture, Pavelski, Havlat, Boyle, Vlasic, this is offense to burn! And against a team with practically NONE, what do YOU think the strategy should be? But I have a feeling that we will STILL see the Sharks trying to beat the brutes of St. Lou at their own game. It'll be fun to watch for the physicality but I don't share the high hopes for the St. Louis team that so many hockey pundits do. I think they can and SHOULD be easily beaten by a Shark team that plays hockey the way it's supposed to be played. WHY OH WHY does nobody seem to do that in the playoffs?

Detroit/Nashville

If I start sounding like a broken record here lemme know. Another series with an elephant of an offense tied to a tiny stake in the ground: that MYTH that defence wins Stanley cups, that defence won THEM Stanley cups even!

But already it's starting. I am reading and hearing hockey people talking about how the "shut-down" abilities of Datsyuk and Zetterberg are going to be needed. WHAT? That's like using a Ferrari to haul lumber. I have a feeling this will be another really frustrating case of the COACH trying to win when he should just let his players play. GRRRRR.

I think Nashville is THE BEST defensive team in the league and I think even I might coach them to play the boring brand of hockey they play. Can you name their top scorer? Can you name ANYone on the team who isn't a defenceman or goalie? Like, who is the guy Zetterberg or Datsyuk is supposed to "shut down?" If you named Martin Erat you are a bona fide hockey man! If you think he's going to light it up in the playoffs this year I think I lost all the respect for you I gained when you named him. I think the Preds will try to score 1 or 2 goals a game and if Detroit can get past the forwards and defence and have anything close to a decent shot on Pecker Rinne, (I still hate him for almost single-handedly killing the Canucks last season), Preds say, "Have at 'er." I want you to know I wrote this on paper BEFORE the game yesterday: "Radulov was a bust last time he made the jump to the bigs and he will be again. He does great in the minors but gets pounded into offensive obscurity in the NHL. I don't share the optimism of the people saying he will bring an offensive explosion to Nashville." And look what happened. Nashville just shouldn't be able to score like they did in the first game of this series. And Detroit should only need a little bit of scoring every game to knock them off. I'm surprised that would be considered an upset.

Phoenix/Chicago

Chicago will likely make the same mistake the other three powerhouses in the west will: they will do the only thing that gives Phoenix a chance: play the OTHER team's game. Phoenix has an awesome defensive team and Mike Smith, HOLY! Try to get ANYthing by him! But their offense. Whitney? Vrbata? Come ON! They seem like one of those teams that gets a long way into the playoffs just because they like each other and work, ummm kinda like a pack of coyotes. But should be no match for offensive elephants like Chicago.


As for Chicago, as with most of these match-ups, the leading scorer on their opponents' team would be 5th or 6th on their team. And as is ALSO the case for the other exciting teams in the west, they had an off year offensively. The whole league did! Only 4 guys scored 40 or more goals! That's the worst year for scoring I can remember! Maybe this will be why Chicago, like the other dummies in the west, will try to out-defence the best defences in the league. I hope they don't try to. Hossa, Kane, Sharp, Toews, if he's playing, are the kind of guys who CAN get good shots on Smith. But not if they're playing "careful" hockey and passing up the wide open man in front of the net to give the "safe" pass to the defenceman at the point. I REALLY think they will play boring if Toews is out. But maybe if he's back from injury we'll have one decent series to watch in the west. I hope so.

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